In short
When does the rainy season start in Bali this year? Later than usual. Indonesia’s weather agency, BMKG, expects it in November for a few areas and in December for about 85% of the island, with the peak around February 2027.
How is it different from last year? In September 2025, extreme rain hit Bali in the middle of the dry season, with deadly floods in Denpasar. This year, El Niño brought a long, hot dry season instead.
What does it mean for villa owners and buyers? Now is the time to check roofs, gutters and drainage. And it is the best moment to see how a villa really handles heavy rain before you buy.
The clouds are back over Bali. On 28 October, the regional weather office warned of moderate to heavy rain across much of the island until 31 October. Yet officially, the rainy season has not started.
A Late Season This Year
This year’s dry season was hotter and longer than usual because of a very strong El Niño. The village of Sumberklampok, in the north-west of the island, went 123 days without a drop of rain, the longest dry spell recorded in Bali this season.
Normally, the rains arrive between October and December. This year, the Bali climatology station expects a delay across the whole island:
BMKG forecast for Bali, 2026–27
A late start
Rain from December for most of the island
Oct
Dry and hot
Nov
15% of Bali
Dec
85% of Bali
Jan
Rainy season
Feb
Expected peak
Where the rain starts first
November: the hills and the north
December: the rest of the island, including Kuta, Denpasar and Ubud
Late does not mean light. Once it starts, BMKG expects normal to above-normal rainfall, and the head of the agency has warned of possible heavy to extreme rain at the end of the year and early next year.
Last Year: The Rain Came Months Early
On 9 and 10 September 2025, right in the dry season, Bali was hit by its worst floods in years. Most of the island received more than 150 mm of rain in a day, and one station in Jembrana recorded 385 mm. Rivers burst their banks, buildings collapsed in Denpasar, and roads to the airport were blocked.
The official toll was heavy: 18 deaths and several people missing, most of them in Denpasar, and hundreds of residents evacuated. Meteorologists linked it to atmospheric waves that triggered unusually intense storms, months before the normal rainy season.
September 2025
Rain months too early
- Over 150 mm of rain in a day across most of Bali
- Floods in Denpasar, roads to the airport cut
- 18 people died
2026
Rain months late
- A very strong El Niño
- 123 days without rain in Sumberklampok
- Rain from December for 85% of Bali
Two very different years. Last year, the rain came far too early. This year, it is late. Either way, the lesson is the same: in Bali, you plan for heavy rain, whatever the calendar says.
What It Means for Your Property
If you own a villa
- Clean gutters and drains before December.
- Check the roof, the pool overflow and any water pumps.
- Make sure your insurance covers flood and storm damage.
Renting your villa out? Our property management team can take care of this maintenance.
If you are buying
- Visit the villa after a heavy rain, not only on a sunny day.
- Ask whether the property or the street flooded in September 2025.
- Check the level of the land compared with the road and any nearby river.
My Take
The rainy season is not a reason to wait. It is the best test there is. A villa that stays dry in January will stay dry all year.
Looking at villas this rainy season?
Tell us your budget, preferred areas and timing. Our team will shortlist villas and arrange viewings, after a heavy rain if you want to see how a villa copes.
Related reading: Bali floods 2025: what they mean for real estate · Why you don’t want to skip your villa inspection · How long does it take to buy a villa in Bali?
Sources: Bali climatology station forecast (detikBali, 28 September 2026); BMKG on El Niño; extreme rain warning (detik); weather warning of 28 October (ANTARA); 123 days without rain (ANTARA Bali); September 2025 toll (Kompas, BNPB); rainfall on 9–10 September 2025 (ANTARA Bali); rainfall in Jembrana (CNBC Indonesia).
